SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER 2026 SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK OVER UGANDA

MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENT Plot No. 3-7 Kabalega Crescent, Luzira P.O. Box 20026 Kampala – Uganda

Ref: SOND/2026/08 28th August, 2026

PAGE 1 SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER 2026 SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK OVER UGANDA 1.0 INTRODUCTION

Uganda generally experiences two major rainfall seasons; March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November-December (SOND) as the first and second rainy seasons, respectively. However, the northern and parts of eastern Uganda typically receive substantial rainfall during the June-July-August (JJA) season.

2.0 CLIMATE DRIVERS FOR SOND 2026 SEASON

The major climate drivers expected to influence the SOND 2026 climate outlook over Uganda include:

i. El Niño: The established El Niño episode is expected to intensify during the SOND 2026 season. This suggests an increased likelihood of enhanced rainfall, particularly over the Central, Northern and Eastern regions of Uganda.

ii. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD is currently in a neutral phase, but is projected to transition into a positive phase around October 2026. When combined with El Niño, this condition is expected to further promote enhanced rainfall over most parts of Uganda.

iii. Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): The positioning and orientation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Uganda during this season, coupled with the moisture advection of the Congo Air Mass, are expected to play a significant role in modulating rainfall distribution.

iv. Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO): The intra-seasonal variation of the tropical wind system known as Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is currently in a neutral phase.

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The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is currently in a neutral phase, and is projected to strengthen into a dry phase over the next one to two weeks. This development is therefore likely to suppress rainfall in September 2026.

v. Regional and Local Features: The regional and local features such as large water bodies and highland areas are expected to enhance localized convection, thereby affecting the spatial rainfall distribution during the season.

Based on these considerations and detailed scientific analyses, the Ministry of Water and Environment, through the Department of Meteorological Services, has generated a detailed seasonal climate outlook for SOND 2026, as presented below.

3.0 GENERAL FORECAST

Overall, the SOND 2026 climate outlook indicates that most parts of the country are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal (near-average to above-average) rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures.

The outlook of this season is expected to be associated with El Niño episode. The spatial distribution of the seasonal rainfall outlook and climatology are shown in Figures 1(a) and 1(b), respectively, and the expected temperature distribution is provided in Figure 2.

Figure 1: (a) SOND 2026 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook (b) SOND Rainfall Climatology (1991–2020)

PAGE 3 Figure 2: SOND 2026 Seasonal Temperature Outlook 4.0 DETAILED FORECAST 4.1 WESTERN UGANDA 4.1.1 South-western Highlands

Including Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Ntungamo, Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara districts.

Most parts of this region are currently experiencing dry conditions, with some areas receiving isolated rains. These conditions are expected to persist until mid to late September when stable rains are expected to get established, reaching peak levels around late October to November.

There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027. Overall, this region is expected to experience near-normal to above-normal (near-average to above-average) rainfall.

4.1.2 South-western Lowlands

Including Isingiro, Mbarara, Ibanda, Kiruhura and Kazo districts.

Most parts of this region are currently dry, with isolated rainfall in some areas. These conditions are expected to continue until around mid to late September when stable rains are expected to get established.

The peak rainfall is expected between late October and mid-November. There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027 over this region. Overall, the region is expected to experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall.

PAGE 4 4.1.3 Rwenzori Region

Including Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole and Bunyangabu districts.

Most areas of this region are currently receiving isolated rains that are expected to continue up to mid to late September. Steady rains are then expected to set in, reaching peak levels by late October to November.

These rains are also expected to extend into January 2027. Overall, the Rwenzori sub-region is forecasted to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.

4.1.4 Central parts of Western Uganda

Including Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kitagwenda, Kagadi and Kibaale districts.

This region is currently receiving isolated rains that are expected to continue up to around mid to late September, thereafter, steady rains are likely to set in, reaching peak around late October to November.

There is a high likelihood of these rains extending up to January 2027. This region is forecasted to experience above-normal rainfall.

4.2 CENTRAL REGION AND LAKE VICTORIA BASIN 4.2.1 Western areas of Central Region

Including Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Kasanda, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Lyantonde and Rakai districts.

Currently, most parts of the region are experiencing dry conditions, with only a few areas receiving isolated rains. These conditions are expected to persist until mid to late September, when steady rains will begin.

The peak of the rains is expected between late October and November, and there is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027. Overall, this region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall.

4.2.2 Central and Western Lake Victoria Region

Including Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Kyotera, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba and Mityana districts.

This region is currently experiencing dry conditions, with some areas receiving isolated rains. These conditions are expected to continue until mid to late September, after which steady rains are anticipated to begin.

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Steady rains are anticipated to begin and reach peak levels between mid-October and mid-November. There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027.

Overall, the region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall.

4.2.3 Eastern areas of Central Region

Including Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga and Buvuma districts.

This region is currently experiencing dry conditions, with a few areas receiving isolated rains. These conditions are expected to persist until mid to late September, when steady rains are expected to set in, reaching peak levels between mid-October and late November.

There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027. Overall, this region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall.

4.3 EASTERN REGION 4.3.1 Eastern Lake Victoria Basin

Including Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo districts.

Most parts of this region are currently experiencing isolated rains, with a few areas experiencing dry conditions. These conditions are expected to continue up to mid to late September, when steady rains are likely to begin, reaching peak levels between late October and November.

There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027 over this region. Overall, the region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall.

4.3.2 South-eastern Region

Including Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro and Butaleja districts.

Currently, many parts of this region are experiencing isolated rains, while some areas remain dry. These conditions are expected to persist until late September, when steady rains are predicted to commence.

The rainfall is projected to reach its peak between late October and November over this region. There is a high probability that these rains will continue into January 2027.

Overall, the region is anticipated to receive above-normal rainfall.

PAGE 6 4.3.3 Eastern parts of Kyoga

Including Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku, Bukedea, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Serere and Soroti districts.

The region is currently experiencing intermittent rains that are expected to continue until mid to late September, when consistent and steady rainfall patterns are expected to be established across the region.

These rains are projected to reach peak levels around late October to November. There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend beyond the typical season, possibly lasting until January 2027.

Overall, the region is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.

4.3.4 Mount Elgon Region

Including Mbale, Sironko, Bulambuli, Manafwa, Bududa, Namisindwa, Kapchorwa, Kween and Bukwo districts.

Most parts of this region are currently experiencing occasional rains, with some lowland areas experiencing dry conditions. These intermittent rains are expected to persist until mid to late September, when more consistent and steady rainfall patterns are expected to be established across the region.

The peak of the rains is expected between mid-October and mid-November, and the cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around late December.

Overall, the region is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall during this season.

4.4 NORTHERN REGION 4.4.1 North-eastern Region

Including Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Napak, Amudat, Karenga and Kaabong districts.

Most areas within this region are currently experiencing dry conditions, with only a few areas within the wet belt receiving isolated and sporadic rainfall.

These conditions are expected to persist until late September, after which, more consistent and steady rains are expected to begin, reaching peak levels between mid-October to mid-November, with cessation occurring around late December.

Overall, the region is expected to receive rainfall amounts ranging from near-normal to slightly above-normal for this season.

PAGE 7 4.4.2 West Nile Region

Including Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Madi-Okollo, Arua, Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Obongi and Adjumani districts.

Most parts of the West Nile region are currently experiencing occasional rains, which are expected to persist until mid to late September, when more consistent and steady rains are expected to get established and continue, reaching peak levels around mid-October to November.

The seasonal rains are expected to decline and end by late December. Overall, the region is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall during this season.

4.4.3 Eastern Parts of Northern Region

Including Lira, Alebtong, Amolatar, Kitgum, Lamwo, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole and Dokolo districts.

The eastern parts of Northern Region are currently experiencing intermittent rains. These sporadic rainfall events are expected to continue until late September.

Starting from late September, more consistent and steady rains are anticipated to be established across the region. The rainy season is projected to reach its peak between mid-October and November.

The seasonal rains are expected to decline and cease by late December. Overall, the region is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall during this season.

4.4.4 Central Parts Northern Region

Including Gulu, Omoro, Kwania, Apac, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo districts.

Most parts of this region are currently experiencing intermittent rains. These irregular rainfall patterns are expected to persist until mid-September, when more steady and consistent rains are anticipated to get established across the region.

The peak of the rainy season is expected between mid-October and November. The cessation of the seasonal rains is projected to occur around late December.

Overall, this region is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during this period.

5.0 THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SOND 2026 FORECAST

The anticipated above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country is likely to have significant socio-economic implications. While the western and northeastern regions are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall, the broader...

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...country is expected to experience above-normal rainfall with an increased likelihood of extreme weather events during the season.

The expected potential impacts on different sectors and their corresponding advisories are presented below.

6.0 ADVISORIES FOR THE DIFFERENT SECTORS

Based on the forecast of near-normal to above-normal rainfall during the SOND 2026 season, the following potential impacts and sector-specific advisories are recommended.

6.1 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY 6.1.1 Crops

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts.

Potential Positive Impacts Improved soil moisture and water availability for crop growth and development; Favorable conditions for perennial crops such as coffee and banana; Increased yields for rain-fed crops that require wet conditions; Adequate water availability for irrigation; Improved pasture and forage availability where crop-livestock systems are integrated; Increased availability of agricultural produce for household consumption and markets. Potential Negative Impacts Increased risk of crop damage and yield losses due to extreme rainfall, hailstorms, strong winds and flash floods; Increased risk of soil erosion, nutrient leaching, water logging and declining soil fertility, particularly in low-lying areas with poor drainage; Higher incidence of crop pests and diseases, such as fall army worm, aphids, black spot and bacterial wilt; Damage to farm infrastructure and agricultural assets; Reduced flowering and fruit development under prolonged wet conditions; Increased production costs associated with pest, disease and storm damage; Post-harvest handling (PHH) losses resulting from damp conditions, leading to mold growth, rotting and aflatoxin contaminations. Advisories for Crop Farmers

The advisories below are provided for crop farmers:

Practice timely planting and stagger planting where appropriate; Avoid low-lying and flood-prone areas, and where unavoidable, plant crops that have higher water requirements such as yams, sugarcane and rice; Monitor and control pests and diseases through Integrated Pest Management (IPM); Promote soil and water conservation through mulching, contour farming, terracing, covering crop, drainage channels and agroforestry; Properly harvest dry crops and store produce in improved storage facilities such as silos. PAGE 9 Store produce in improved storage facilities such as silos or hermetic bags to minimize post-harvest losses; Establish nursery beds in well-drained areas to minimize waterlogging and disease risks associated with too much water such as viral and fungal diseases; Invest in value addition and proper market timing to maximize economic returns; Diversify crops and use suitable, high-yielding varieties, i.e. mix long-maturing and short-duration crops to maximize yields; Apply Good Agronomic Practices (GAP) including timely weeding, proper spacing, thinning and fertilizer management; Protect crops and farm infrastructure against strong winds and hailstorms; Practice proper post-harvest handling, storage and early marketing; Promote agricultural insurance where available. 6.1.2 Fisheries

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts.

Potential Positive Impacts Increased availability of natural fish food sources in lakes, rivers and other water bodies thus boosting fish production; Potential increase in fish production, especially flood-adaptive fish species due to expanded breeding and feeding habitats; Improved water availability and water quality for aquatic species; Improved fish growth and productivity where water quality remains suitable. Potential Negative Impacts Increased fish escape and losses due to flooding of ponds and uncontrolled overflowing; Damage to fisheries infrastructure such as ponds, cages, boats and landing sites; Increased siltation and turbidity in fish ponds resulting in oxygen depletion; Disruption of fish breeding, migration and distribution; Fish stress and mortality due to poor water quality; Increased safety risks to fishermen during severe weather. Advisories for Fisheries

The advisories below are provided for fish farmers:

Strengthen pond embankments and maintain spillways and drainage channels; Locate ponds away from flood-prone areas; Raise pond dykes and stock fish in ponds to take advantage of increased water availability; Install screened inlets and outlets to minimize fish escape; Construct sediment traps and maintain vegetative buffer strips; Regularly inspect and reinforce fish cages, nets, anchors and mooring systems; Secure boats and fishing equipment before storms; Avoid fishing during thunderstorms and strong winds; Protect wetlands, riverbanks, breeding grounds and fish migration routes; Monitor water quality, particularly dissolved oxygen and temperature; Avoid overfeeding and remove dead fish and organic waste promptly; Regularly follow weather updates and advisories before you head to lakes and rivers for any fishing activities. PAGE 10 6.1.3 Livestock

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts on livestock.

Potential Positive Impacts Increased pasture and forage availability for grazing; Improved livestock nutrition and quality of milk and meat; Adequate water availability and replenishment of water sources for livestock; Reduced pressure and competition over natural grazing and water resources. Potential Negative Impacts Increased risk of livestock disease and vector infestation including ticks, FMDs, pneumonia, trypanosomiasis and coccidiosis; Livestock injuries, deaths and displacement during floods and severe storms such as lightning; Damage to pastures especially in flood-prone areas due to waterlogging; Overstocking of animals in confined places during heavy rains may result in disease outbreak; Contamination of drinking water points thus causing animal poisoning; Loss of livestock productivity and increased veterinary costs. Advisories for Livestock Farmers

The advisories below are provided for livestock farmers:

Strengthen vaccination programs, deworming, disease surveillance and ensure timely animal treatment; Provide clean and safe drinking water points for animals; Avoid grazing in flood-prone and waterlogged areas; Improve drainage in animal shelters and construct waterproof roofs, where possible; Construct livestock shelters on raised, safe and well-drained ground; Prepare livestock evacuation plans for flood-prone areas during periods of heavy storms; Protect animals from hailstorms, lightning and thunderstorms; Harvest and preserve excess pasture as hay and silage to prevent spoilage after peak periods of rainfall; Improve water-storage facilities and livestock watering points; Promote value addition and early marketing of livestock products. PAGE 11 6.1.4 Food Security

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts on food security.

Potential Positive Impacts Increased availability of food for household consumption; Potential reduction in food prices where production is high; Increased availability of agricultural products for local markets. Potential Negative Impacts Reduced food availability following crop and livestock losses due to heavy rains and flash floods; Post-harvest losses due to inadequate drying and storage facilities; Potential disruption of food markets and household incomes as a result of waterlogging; Increased vulnerability of food-insecure households. Advisories for Food Security

The advisories below are provided for food security:

Maintain adequate household and community food reserves; Promote proper drying, storage and post-harvest handling; Diversify food production to reduce dependence on individual crops; Promote food processing, preservation and value addition; Search for market early where high production is expected; Monitor food availability and prices, particularly following extreme weather events; Strengthen dissemination and use of timely weather and climate information for food-security planning. 6.1.5 Bee Keeping

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts on bee keeping.

Potential Positive Impacts Adequate soil moisture to support flowering plants and nectar production; Adequate water availability for bee colonies; Potential improvement in bee colony productivity and honey production due to abundance of flowering plants during the rainy season. Potential Negative Impacts Destruction of apiary infrastructure due to strong winds and heavy rainfall; Colony stress, absconding and possible colony losses; Higher risk of fungal and bacterial infections due to excessive moisture and weakened colony immunity; Increased hive pests such as wax moths and small hive beetles; Reduced honey production where strong winds or excessive rainfall destroy flowers. Advisories for Bee Keepers

The advisories below are provided for bee keepers:

Establish apiaries on elevated, well-drained ground; Avoid flood-prone locations; Secure hives and use strong hive stands; Establish windbreaks and sheltered apiary sites; Provide appropriate shade and protection from harsh weather. PAGE 12 Enhance monitoring, disease surveillance and pest control; Apply integrated pest management while protecting pollinators; Plant flowering crops around apiaries to maintain forage availability; Avoid use of harmful pesticides during spraying near apiaries to protect bee colonies; Monitor colonies closely following heavy rainfall and severe storms. 6.2 WATER, ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts on the water, environment and energy sectors.

Potential Positive Impacts Stable water availability due to increased recharge of aquifers and this improves water availability during dry periods; Increased water yield in catchments as a result of increased amount of water flowing into rivers, streams, wetlands, dams and other water bodies; Increased availability of water for power generation, domestic and industrial use. Potential Negative Impacts Ground water contamination from surface runoff leading to disease transmission such as cholera, diarrhea and dysentery; High chances of increased surface and groundwater levels, leading to more water in the river-lines, floods and flash floods in flood-prone regions and bursting of river banks, e.g. Nyamwamba in Rwenzori and Manafwa, Namatala in Elgon; Increased sediment loading into the water bodies and water storage facilities such as valley dams/tanks, reservoirs, ponds and other water passages; More cases of electricity pole and wire breakdowns are expected due to wet soils and strong winds. Transformers also may be at stake; Washing away and siltation of water sources especially springs; Breakdown and washing away of piped water system components like pipelines and chambers; Expect bursting of river/reservoir banks, e.g. River Kiriruma in Kabale; Damaging of road infrastructure like washing away of bridges, roads and pavements; Submergence and destruction of water infrastructure; shallow wells, deep boreholes, springs and sanitation facilities; Cut-off of water points due to floods especially piped water systems. PAGE 13

Additional potential negative impacts include:

Rusting of borehole pipes; Increased soil erosion, landslides and water infiltration; Contamination of both surface and underground water. Advisories for Water, Environment and Energy

The advisories below are provided for Water, Environment and Energy sectors:

Enhance water storage and harvesting through dams, reservoirs, valley tanks, farm ponds and rainwater harvesting systems to improve water availability; Inspect, de-silt, rehabilitate and maintain water infrastructure, including reservoirs, drainage channels, water supply systems and monitoring stations especially in the flood-prone areas; Heavy de-siltation of water resources like rivers, lakes and dams where there is minimal vegetation cover should be encouraged; Strengthen water quality management through regular monitoring, water treatment, protection of water sources and improved sanitation practices; Improve flood risk management by clearing drainage systems, protecting wetlands, stabilizing riverbanks and discouraging settlement in flood-prone areas; Strengthen catchment management and erosion control through tree planting, restoration of degraded catchments, soil conservation and sustainable land-use practices; Improve preparedness for weather-related hazards, including lightning, flooding and severe storms, through early warning systems and protective infrastructure like installation of lightning conductors; National Water and Sewerage Corporation should regularly check on the water distribution systems due to expected damage, submergence and breakages in water infrastructure as well as leakages to minimize water contamination; Proper waste management to minimize its inflow into water channels; The communities that settle around water bodies should continuously monitor water levels and do immediate reporting to relevant authorities; Take advantage of increased water availability to optimize hydropower generation while maintaining safe reservoir levels; The energy sector should plan for optimization of power generation and distribution; Inspect and strengthen power lines, poles, transformers and substations in areas at risk of flooding, strong winds and landslides; Switch off electricity in flooded buildings where there is a risk of contact with water to avoid the risk of electrocution. PAGE 14 6.3 HEALTH

Below are the potential positive and negative impacts on the health sector.

Potential Positive Impacts Improved hygiene due to availability of water; Improved nutrition due to increased food production; Increased household income to support health care services. Potential Negative Impacts Increased disease outbreak such as Cholera, Malaria, respiratory infections like Asthma, and zoonotic diseases; Flooding is also likely to occur which may lead to disruption of health service delivery, decreased contact with health facilities by communities and injury or drowning; Mudslides resulting into death, disability and loss of property; Malnutrition due to food shortage as a result of crop destruction; Pollution of environment thus compromising the water, air and land quality; Psychological effects due to loss of dear ones and property as a result of lightning, floods and mudslides; Displacement of people leading to early pregnancies, defilements, rape, civil conflicts, domestic violence; Lightning which leads to direct fatalities, severe burns, cardiac arrest cases and neurological injuries in survivors. Advisories for Health

The advisories below are provided for health sector:

Communities are advised to adhere to vector control measures such as sleeping under insecticide treated mosquito nets, clearing bushes around homes, and emptying containers near homes to prevent malaria; Communities are advised to use safe water to prevent water-borne diseases; Local authorities are required to conduct community-based surveillance to detect disease outbreaks; Ministry of Health should increase stock and prepositioning of medicines, vaccines and supplies; District disaster management teams should prepare for temporary shifting of the populations from flood-prone places to safer ones; District task forces should prepare for creation of more outreach programmes; Local government to liaise with Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) in order to enhance food supply and other relief services to the affected population; District task force to enhance training of communities on better methods of food preservation, kitchen gardening, drying and pounding vegetables and keeping it in powdered form; District health teams should encourage communities to construct toilets upstream to avoid water contamination. PAGE 15 Ministry of Health should collaborate with other relevant ministries to conduct water quality monitoring and testing; Ministry of Health in collaboration with other Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to ensure proper solid waste management; The district health teams should enhance guidance and counseling to the affected populations; Ministry of Health should design modalities of emergency evacuation and treatment of survivors; Ministry of Health, in collaboration with development partners and MDAs, should enhance provision of separate basic facilities in relation to gender, e.g. toilets and housing units; District Disaster Management teams should enhance sensitization of communities on sexual and reproductive rights and negative impacts of domestic violence; District Disaster Management teams should enhance sensitization of communities not to seek shelter under tall trees and encourage putting on rubber shoes during rain showers to avoid lightning strikes. 6.4 DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)

Below are the potential positive and negative impacts on DRM.

Potential Positive Impacts Extended farming period; Replenishment of water sources: rivers, lakes, and underground water tables will be restored, ensuring water availability for both domestic and production use. Potential Negative Impacts Water logging in prone areas such as low-lying areas; Heavy downpours that may cause flooding during the peak of the rainfall season are expected; Mudslides and landslides in the Elgon sub-region are expected; High chances of increased surface and groundwater levels, leading to more water in the river-lines, floods and flash floods in flood-prone regions and bursting of river banks, e.g. Nyamwamba in Rwenzori and Manafwa, Namatala in Elgon, Kafu, Awoja, Onyama near Elegu border post; Lightning strikes are expected across the country; Flooding is likely to occur in areas surrounding Lake Kyoga, Pakwach, Obongi, Karamoja, Rwenzori and Kigezi sub-regions. Also, cities, majorly Kampala metropolitan area and towns, may experience incidences of flooding due to heavy downpour; Heavy storms that may cause buildings and sanitary facilities to collapse, particularly those constructed in wetland areas, are expected; Disruption of social services (health, education, piped water network, electricity and transport); Increased outbreak of waterborne diseases, e.g. foot and mouth disease, malaria, cholera, typhoid etc. PAGE 16

Additional potential negative impacts include:

Heavy storms, strong winds and hailstorms that may cause destruction to banana and coffee plantations as well as infrastructure are expected; Mudslides and landslides in Kigezi Highland and Rwenzori sub-regions are expected. Advisories for Disaster Risk Management

The advisories below are provided for disaster risk management:

Communities in low-lying areas/flood-prone areas should relocate to safe areas; Communities are advised to plant trees to reduce run-off speed of the water; Installation of lightning arresters in areas prone to lightning; Communities are advised not to take shelter under tall structures when it’s raining to avoid lightning strikes; Mobilize communities to support dissemination of early warning information; Prepositioning emergency shelter stocks for schools that may be affected; The media is advised to widely disseminate and provide feedback over the performance and impact of the seasonal forecasts; Municipal authorities should open drainage channels and intensify proper solid waste management to reduce the risk associated with urban flooding; Communities are advised to avoid crossing flooded pathways; Conserve water for both domestic and production use; Strengthening of Early Warning systems and early actions; Review and activate District Contingency Plans (DCPs) based on the hazards associated with this season; Prepare disaster structures on drills to enhance their capacities to respond to the emergencies; Engage communities to design early actions to address the identified impacts; Follow the subsequent Department of Meteorological Services for weather updates for effectiveness; The public may report any emergencies to NECOC on 0800 177777. 6.5 EDUCATION SECTOR

The following are the potential positive and negative impacts on education sector.

Potential Positive Impacts Increased water availability for school use through water harvesting systems. Potential Negative Impacts Heavy rains may result into loss of lives, injuries, damage of school facilities, disrupting learning activities, including National Examinations (UNEB & PLE); Increased incidences of water-related diseases; Increased incidences of lightning strikes; Increased absenteeism: Flooded roads and bridges may make it difficult for learners and teachers to reach schools. PAGE 17 Advisories for the Education Sector

The advisories below are provided for education sector:

Strengthen school infrastructure, including roofing, lightning arrestors and drainage systems; Develop and implement school contingency and emergency preparedness plans; Promote rainwater harvesting for safe water supply in schools; Coordinate with local authorities to ensure safe access routes for learners and staff; Encourage children to put on rubber shoes. 7.0 CONCLUSION

The seasonal forecast for September to December, 2026 season reveals that near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Uganda. However, the onset of rains will vary by region, with most areas expected to experience late onset.

The rainfall peak is expected by the end of October to November, and the season is projected to extend up to early January 2027 in most parts of the country.

The predicted rainfall requires timely action to mitigate risks and take advantage of favorable conditions. This forecast should guide planning in all climate-sensitive sectors to enhance economic resilience and community well-being.

The Ministry of Water and Environment will continue to monitor the weather patterns and regularly issue updates to support planning and decision-making.

Dr. Alfred Okot Okidi PERMANENT SECRETARY